Swine flu (and conspiracy theories)

I just watched a whole bunch of videos about swine flu to see if there was a nice simple summary I could post here. It's amazing some of the crazy stuff that is out there. Not only is there a whole Swine flu conspiracy theory but its wrapped up with chemtrails, the new world order and probably Lee Harvey Oswald if you watch further than I did. You can get all your conspiracy theories covered in one go in this video which takes a look at some of them.

The video above is a nice simple illustration of where Swine Flu came from and reviews some of the topics we covered in class. It also simply explains why we might expect more contagious strains of flu to be less dangerous - it's all down to which part of the respiratory tract they infect.

To publish or not?

Some of you may have read about an interesting disease related debate that is going on right now and is attracting quite a lot of media attention. It concerns the H5N1 strain of influenza that appears to have a high mortality rate in people but is currently poorly transmitted between people (if it is even transmitted at all).

In 2011 two teams of scientists created mutant strains of H5N1 influenza (ie avian or bird flu) that could be more easily passed between mammals in a laboratory setting (ferrets are the animals of choice for flu studies apparently). Scientifically this is interesting research and could address several public health issues: can this strain become more easily transmitted without losing its virulence? Which changes should we watch out for? How many mutations does such a change require?

However as the papers were reviewed the US National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) recommended that the results of the two studies should only be published in a redacted form. They advised that methods and details should be left out for fear the research could fall into the wrong hands and be used to create a pandemic that might kill tens of millions of people. This unprecedented move sparked a broader debate about censorship and responsibility in potentially dangerous research.

It also provoked some sensational headlines:
Controversial 'Armageddon' super virus recipe to stay secret - for now - Sydney Morning Herald

In a meeting last month the World Health organization came to a different conclusion. A panel of 22 experts  concluded that the mutant flu studies should be published in full. They argued that redaction would likely be ineffective and that the benefits outweighed the potential risks.

Nature have put together a web special on the H5N1 controversy that compiles a variety of papers, reports and commentary (and is also the source for this fantastic chicken image).

Vaccination then and now

As I mentioned in an earlier class vaccines become victims of their own success. As the diseases they cause become rare and fade from our memory we tend to focus on the possible side effects of the vaccine - sometimes real, sometimes imagined.

However when the actual disease in in your neighborhood, crippling and paralyzing children then you queue around the block to get your child their vaccination shot.

One fact I didn't mention in lecture was that neither Jonas Salk nor Albert Sabin (who invented the oral polio vaccine) patented their vaccines - they donated the rights as gifts to humanity. In fact there's a fairly famous story about Jonas Salk, who worked at the University of Pittsburgh, being asked by a reporter “Who owns your polio vaccine?” On hearing the question, Dr. Salk looked at the reporter and said “Who owns my polio vaccine? The people! Could you patent the sun?”

Polio at the Smithsonion

Thanks to a link from Clark I discovered that the Smithsonian National Museum of American History has a fantastic online exhibition about Polio.

I think they've done a great job with a nice combination of text, pictures and audiovisual material. In addition to the direct impact of the disease itself it is interesting to read how the large number of disabilities caused by it led to fundamental changes in the way that the disabled were treated in this country.

“Before Mom found an opportunity to go down to the grade school office to register me, three members of the school board came to visit us …. ‘It has been brought to my attention that you folks have a son in a wheelchair. It is our duty to inform you he will be unable to attend school….’”
—Don Kirkendall, 1973

India celebrates a milestone

New Delhi, Feb. 25 2012: The World Health Organisation has deleted India from its list of polio endemic countries, acknowledging the absence of any new instance of illness caused by the wild polio virus for more than a year since a child was diagnosed with the disease in Howrah in January 2011.

“This is the first time in history we’re able to put up a map like this one,” Bruce Aylward, an assistant director-general for polio in the WHO, told a conference here today. He presented a map displaying polio cases over the past year in Africa, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China but none in India.

Indian health authorities had recorded 741 patients paralysed by the wild polio virus in 2009 and 42 patients in 2010, but have detected no new patients since January 2011.

“But the big risk is to think we’ve finished,” Aylward said. India will need to remain free of any paralysis caused by the wild polio virus for three years from the last case before it can seek WHO certification for having eradicated polio — in January 2014.

Recall that because there may be 100 cases of mild, subclinical,  polio for each diagnosed case then India may have had dozens of cases of Polio last year. That's not to say that this isn't a big step in the right direction - just that surveillance and vaccination need to remain high and the presence of endemic polio in Afghanistan and Pakistan will always threaten India until those countries too can establish her immunity and eradicate this disease.

Following this vaccination success India is now looking to eradicate measles and tetanus.

Polio - a miscellany

We didn't have much time to talk about polio but if you'd like to know more here are some polio related items culled from past posts. 

Polio in comic book form

The story of Polio in comic book form. by James Weldon, a journalism student at the University of British Columbia. Learn the full story from the polio virus itself as it tells all in a group therapy session for 'diseases nearing extinction' with smallpox, guinea worm and leprosy. Lots of little jokes in here and a surprising amount of information.

Iron Lungs

When people are nostalgic for the 'simpler' times of the 1950's (after the war but before the turbulence of the sixties) they usually conveniently forget about horrors such as polio and iron lungs. These days many people probably only think of an iron lung as a Radiohead song, and even then many people miss the metaphor - something that keeps you alive but becomes very restrictive.


I am amazed by people who have lived their whole lives in them but have remained cheerful and happy. As well as the story about John Prestwich there is also the story of Martha Mason who has lived in an iron lung for over 60 years.

(A)s one of the few surviving people left who live their lives encased in an iron tank, she said she intends to continue as she always has -- making the most out of what life has offered her.
"Get as much joy from life for yourself and others as you can squeeze out of it," she said.

Polio eradication - is it worth it?

Check out this New York Times article about Polio eradication that contains some interesting comments about Bill Gates funding for the initiative in particular:

The effort has now cost $9 billion, and each year consumes another $1 billion. By contrast, the 14-year drive to wipe out smallpox cost only $500 million in today’s dollars. 

“Bill Gates’s obsession with polio is distorting priorities in other ... areas. Global health does not depend on polio eradication.” 

Bin Laden vaccination Ruse

There's a fairly factual report in the New York Times, Vaccination Ruse Used in Pursuit of Bin Laden, but they miss the serious implications of this that are discussed in this post at Wired, File Under WTF: Did the CIA Fake a Vaccination Campaign?

This is awful. It plays, so precisely that it might have been scripted, into the most paranoid conspiracy theories about vaccines: that they are pointless, poisonous, covert shields for nefarious government agendas meant to do children harm.

Protect your children

 Disney themed DDT impregnated wallpaper sold in the US in 1947.

Because of evidence of environmental damage DDT was banned in the US in 1972 and was subsequently banned for agricultural use worldwide under the Stockholm Convention. It still has a limited use for vector control but there are some who would like to see this use greatly expanded -

WHO Backs Use of DDT Against Malaria: The World Health Organization today announced a major policy change. It's actively backing the controversial pesticide DDT as a way to control malaria. 
NPR - September 2006


It's an interesting and fairly complex issue. Here's another NPR article from 2009 that addresses the same issue but with a specific program in Uganda. It addresses both the consequences for organic farmers:

 Many farmers feared the DDT could ruin their livelihoods. A lot of farmers here grew organic cotton and sold it -- at a premium -- to the international market. After harvesting, they stored the crops in their homes -- in the very same space where the DDT was to be sprayed.

and how fear of DDT was being used for political gain by others:

Public health experts generally believe that if DDT poses potential health risks, they're far smaller than the known risks posed by malaria. But the Ugandan government didn't paint this nuanced picture of risks verses benefits.
As public concern grew, it wasn't long before politicians stepped into the fray.
"Your President wants to kill you all in broad daylight. I say this because DDT is a highly toxic chemical," said Ken Lukyamuzi.
Lukyamuzi is the charismatic leader of the conservative party -- a small but vocal opposition party in parliament.