Wednesday, April 29, 2009


Reikan Lin said...

That's really funny. Do you have an comments about the swine flu?

John Latto said...

Well it looks like it isn't going to be the big one. But it's easier to say that now than it was a week ago.

I worry that if we have enough false alarms like this the public will get complacent when a more serious strain comes along, which will eventually happen.

The press didn't do a very good job distinguishing between the different possibilities.
1) a killer flu that isn't easily transmitted (ie the current H5N1 avian flu)
2) a killer flu that is easily transmitted (ie the 1918 strain)
3) a non-killer flu that is easily transmitted (like a typical flu season strain). BUT if anything increases the transmission rate, even if only slightly, then huge numbers could die, even if it rarely kills, because the numbers involved are so large.